Spanish Election Commences: Socialists' Grip on Power at Stake

Spanish Election Commences: Socialists' Grip on Power at Stake
Spanish Election Commences: Socialists' Grip on Power at Stake

On July 23, in Madrid, the citizens of Spain headed to the polls to partake in a momentous general election, fraught with the possibility of a significant power shift. 


The ruling Socialists, led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, faced the real prospect of losing their grip on authority, while the emergence of a far-right party could mark the first time in half a century that they play a role in a new government.


The voting process commenced at 9 a.m. (0700 GMT) and is slated to continue until 8 p.m. (1800 GMT), at which time exit polls will be revealed. 


Observers and experts anticipate that the final outcome will be determined by a slim margin of fewer than a million votes and, astonishingly, less than 10 seats in the 350-seat parliament. The stakes are undeniably high, and the election's outcome remains on a knife's edge.


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Prime Minister Sanchez made the decision to call for an early election following a significant setback for the left in the local elections held in May. 


However, his strategic move to catch his opponents off guard carries a certain risk of potential repercussions.


According to various opinion polls, the upcoming election is poised to result in a victory for Alberto Nunez Feijoo's center-right People's Party. 


However, forming a government would require an alliance with Santiago Abascal's far-right Vox party. This would mark a historic moment as it would be the first time a far-right party assumes a position in the government since the end of Francisco Franco's dictatorship in the 1970s.


A wave of frustration has swept across Spain as citizens find themselves called upon to vote during the scorching summer months, coinciding with their well-deserved vacations. 


In response to this inconvenience, the postal service has observed an unprecedented surge in postal votes, reaching a record-breaking 2.47 million, as people opt to exercise their democratic right from the serene settings of the beach or mountains.

Spanish Election Commences: Socialists' Grip on Power at Stake

Amidst the uncertainty surrounding the election, experts speculate on the potential outcomes. Barclays, in a recent communication to their clients, indicated that the current situation could lead to a status quo scenario or even a hung parliament. 


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They assessed a 50% combined probability of such scenarios, attributing it to the delicate margin in favor of PP and the overall uncertainty regarding polling and voter turnout.


The fate of the upcoming election in Spain may ultimately rest on whether Feijoo or Sanchez can garner enough backing from smaller parties to forge a coalition government.


At present, the country's Prime Minister leads a minority government under the banner of the Socialist (PSOE) party, in alliance with the far-left Unidas Podemos, which is contesting the election through the Sumar platform.


During their tenure, this coalition has succeeded in enacting progressive legislation pertaining to euthanasia, transgender rights, abortion, and animal welfare. 


However, they caution voters that these hard-fought rights could be at risk of being rolled back if the anti-feminist, family values-oriented Vox party becomes part of the next governing coalition.


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Sanchez, who assumed office in 2018, has grappled with a challenging tenure as prime minister, navigating through various crises, including the COVID pandemic's far-reaching impact on both public health and the economy, as well as the turbulent aftermath of Catalonia's unsuccessful bid for independence in 2017.


Feijoo, the leader of the PP (Popular Party) and a consistently victorious candidate in his home region of Galicia, has strategically leveraged his image of reliability and steadiness, branding himself as a secure and trustworthy choice for the position. 


This approach is believed to resonate with certain segments of the electorate, according to experts' analyses.


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The establishment of a fresh government hinges on intricate negotiations, which might extend over several weeks or even months, and in the most extreme scenario, could trigger another round of elections.

Spanish Election Commences: Socialists' Grip on Power at Stake
Image Source: reuters.com

This prevailing uncertainty poses a potential challenge to Madrid's ability to effectively fulfill its role as the current host of the six-month rotating presidency of the European Union Council. 


Moreover, it raises concerns about the proper utilization of EU COVID recovery funds allocated to Spain during this critical period.


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